Telus Corp.’ s (T/TSX) recent announcement of strong second-quarter results has analysts wondering whether rival Rogers Communications Inc.’ s (RCIb/TSX) supremacy in the Canadian wireless market is coming to an end. Canaccord Adams’ David Lambert said in a note to clients this week that the results for Telus, which saw a record 176,000 new wireless subscribers sign up, is an indication that CDMA handsets, aggressive wireless pricing and good management of subscriber acquisition costs could help the British Columbia-based telecommunications giant regain some market share from industry leader Rogers. Over at RBC Capital Markets, analyst Jonathan Allen pointed out the main driver to Telus’ second-quarter success is in its Koodo Mobile brand.
“Our channel checks indicated Koodo enjoyed nice traction in the dealer channel, but we underestimated the impact, and based on the delta to our forecasts we believe Koodo may have represented 50,000 plus of subscriber additions.”
However, Mr. Allen told investors that as a value brand, Koodo will not produce premium monthly average revenue per user (ARPU) growth, but the economics should compare nicely with Telus’ current subscriber base due to a smaller handset subsidy, lower commissions and a higher average revenue per minute rate.
While Mr. Allen is comforted by Koodo’s success, which shows there is still plenty of room for Canadian wireless penetration to grow, UBS telecom equity analyst Jeffrey Fan is somewhat more wary. He said Telus could face acceleration in its loss of residential line business, thanks to customers substituting land lines with wireless, and could feel the impact of increased wireless competition following the sale of wireless spectrum.
“We expect Rogers’ launch of the iPhone and other exclusive devices, and its back-to-school campaigns, will have an impact on Telus’ (and BCE’s) share of postpaid wireless subscriber net additions,” Mr. Fan said in a research note.
Mr. Fan, who maintains a “neutral -short-term sell” rating and $43 target price on Telus stock, expects the company to soon announce its decision to build a WCDMA/HSPA network, which would increase the company’s execution risk, operating expenses and capital spending.
During last week’s conference call, Telus chief executive Darren Entwistle said the company will eventually move to a 4G LTE wireless network, but did not disclose how it will evolve from its current CDMA network to that point.
According to Mr. Allen, the technology choice may almost be moot.
“While it is dangerous drawing conclusions after only four months of Koodo results, we believe Telus has thus far shown that it is not materially disadvantaged because of its CDMA technology,” Mr. Allen said.
He has a $55 price target and a “sector perform” rating on the company.
Mr. Lambert said Telus shares are currently a better investment than Rogers if it can regain market share of wireless subscribers as well as increase its investments in broadband services, which is starting to reap benefits against Shaw and greater strategic value despite foreign ownership restrictions. He maintains a “buy” rating with a $50 price target on Telus’ stock.
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